Let’s mix religion and politics in this post. Deep breath.
The Catholic Church has a Donald Trump problem. Or, maybe the more accurate statement is that Donald Trump has a Catholic problem.
Disclaimer: I was raised agnostic, so I don’t have religious “skin in the game.”
It’s been two months since the election of American Robert Francis Prevost as Pope. But these events skim past us so quickly that it’s likely that we haven’t connected all the dots. Your humble servant arrives (that’s me).
(Undisputed Facts About Robert Francis Prevost, Pope Leo XIV)
1. American, born in Chicago.
2. Was elected in two days, after four ballots, which is close to the quickest elections in modern history.
3. His conclave included a record 133 cardinals.
4. A 2/3 majority is required to elect a pope. It’s been reported that he received more than 100 votes on the 4th ballot, sealing his election.
5. He lived for decades in Peru (the Peruvians call him a Peruano).
6. He speaks five languages.
7. He has Spanish, French and Creole ancestors.
8. The Creole part of Leo XIV includes “black or mulatto” maternal grandparents, in the early 20th-century census records from the Creole community in New Orleans.
9. He chose the name Leo XIV, after Leo XIII. Leo XIII was a social justice advocate and a champion of human dignity.
10. Before becoming Pope, he said “family separation is wrong” in 2018, during Trump’s first term.
11. Before becoming Pope, he directly refuted JD Vance, by name, saying, “JD Vance is wrong …” when Vance said that “compassion should be directed to fellow citizens first.”
12. In 2022, as a then-bishop, he condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “imperialist in nature.”
13. As Pope, Leo XIV appointed Michael Pham, a Vietnamese-American, as the U.S. Bishop of San Diego on May 22, 2025. On June 20, Pham issued a call for priests and deacons to accompany migrants to their immigration court hearings.
14. Leo XIV is still critical of the LGBTQ lifestyle. (I guess we can’t have everything everywhere all at once)
In case those facts haven’t fit together in any cohesive narrative for you yet, let’s try this: The Catholic Church, showing decisiveness, near-unanimity, and a sense of urgency, elected a Pope with demonstrated progressive credentials and Black blood, at a time of moral crisis.
Furthermore, his progressive bona fides were already known before his election, so it’s not as if the cardinals were blind to it, or as if Leo sprung a surprise. (See points #8, 10-12, all demonstrating progressive points of view, and all occurring before his election).
22% of Trump’s voter base in 2024 was Catholic. That’s about 17M votes.
If we assume that the election of Leo XIV was an example of the Church placing a finger on the geopolitical scales, is there any precedent for this?
Yes. In 1978, they elected John Paul II (also in two days, also on four ballots, like Leo XIV). JPII was Polish, at a time when Poland was a Soviet state. He was the first non-Italian pope in 455 years. JPII’s 1979 visit to Poland helped catalyze the creation of Solidarity, the first independent labor union in the Eastern bloc. That event is now seen as one of the first stepping stones to the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Regarding the elections of JPII and Leo XIV, the dots can be connected in at least three ways that I can think of:
A) The Cardinals steered these two elections in a direction to counterbalance what they saw as un-Christian developments in the world; or
B) Divine Intervention; or
C) All of the above.
In any case, Leo’s election drove MAGA nuts. So there must be something good about it.
